JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- It's been three weeks since a blast of Artic air dropped into the Central Plains and sent temperatures tumbling to well below zero in many areas. While the extreme cold had many concerned about the potential for winterkill in the winter wheat crop, several factors seem to favor the crop's survival.

"I'm still cautiously optimistic that the majority of the crop is probably going to make it through that event OK," said Romulo Lollato, Extension wheat and forage specialist at Kansas State University, in a phone interview with DTN. "Yes, the air temperature dropped as low as -15 degrees (Fahrenheit) in some places, but soil temperatures never dropped below 20 degrees, so it wasn't likely cold enough to cause winterkill to a well winter-hardened wheat crop. Even if we see dead leaves, as long as the crown of the plant survives, we should be OK."

Lollato said for the most part, the Kansas wheat crop was off to a good start in the 2025 growing season. He noted that a good amount of precipitation in late October and November -- coupled with above-average fall temperatures -- allowed much of the Kansas wheat crop to establish and tiller during the fall. The larger number of tillers and consequent root development led to greater winterhardiness development, he said.

"A well-developed crop with three to five tillers can handle air temperatures during the winter in the single digits fairly well. Over 60% of the Kansas wheat crop emerged by mid-October and likely falls in this category," he wrote in a recent K-State online newsletter. "However, soil temperatures in the single digits can cause significant damage and winterkill, especially to less developed crops, such as the fields that emerged after November (about 25% of the Kansas crop), which will be more sensitive to winterkill with higher temperature thresholds for damage."

MOISTURE MATTERS

Crop development is only part of the equation when it comes to the potential for winterkill in wheat. Soil moisture content and snow cover also are factors due to their ability to buffer low air temperatures. Lollato said that across most of Kansas, the soil profile was above 70% to 80% saturation. Most of the state also had good snow cover during January.

"When those cold temperatures really hit, there was still 4 to 5 inches of snow remaining in central, north-central and northeast Kansas, so that snow should have been sufficient to insulate the wheat crop," Lollato explained. "That snow has since melted, adding more temperature-buffering moisture to the soil profile."

While lower temperatures are once again in the forecast, so too is moisture in the form of blanketing snow. According to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick, a couple of systems are forecast to bring measurable snowfall to the Central Plains this week, starting with a system moving eastward from the Rockies from Tuesday into Wednesday.

"Heavy snow is forecast in eastern Colorado, most of Kansas and the southern tier or two of counties in Nebraska. In this area, we could see a burst of 6-plus inches of snow," he said. "We've had some cold air move in already to start the week. If the snow is as widespread as it is forecast, it'll help protect the wheat from the cold that follows the midweek system."

Baranick said another system is expected in the same areas Friday night and Saturday. While precipitation may not be as heavy as the midweek system, it could be in some spots. Models are targeting eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska with the heaviest snow right now.

"That, too, will be followed by some pretty cold air, though models are not forecasting it to be as cold as we see this week. Still, temperatures down in the 20s south (west Texas) and single digits above and below zero north (Kansas and Nebraska) are in the forecast right now. If any of these areas are not covered in snow, they could have some impacts for winterkill on wheat or any other overwintering crops and forages."

Lollato said he'll continue to watch soil temperatures measured at the 2-inch depth, which is nearest the crown of the wheat plant. The extent of any winterkill won't be known until wheat starts to green up later in the spring.

"The moisture we've had is going to be beneficial in many ways," he said. "Not only is it helping protect the crop from any potential cold temperatures that might come now, but it's also going to help the crop take off in the early phases for spring growth."

Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

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